This article by Leo Shane III originally appeared on Military Times, the nation's largest independent newsroom dedicated to covering the military and veteran community.

Recipients of Social Security checks and veterans benefits payouts could see a cost-of-living adjustment of less than 3% in 2025, the lowest mark since before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to an independent watchdog group.

Officials from the Senior Citizens League — an affiliate of TREA: The Enlisted Association — last week announced their latest projection for Social Security COLA rates for the upcoming year, estimating the figure will be less than 2.6%.

[UPDATED MONTHLY: MOAA's COLA Watch]

In a statement, the group said that figure is “substantially lower” than the 3.2% adjustment that was implemented at the start of 2024. The cost-of-living adjustment rate hasn’t been below 3% since early 2020, when it was down to 1.3%.

Social Security officials typically announce their cost-of-living calculations for the coming calendar year in early October.

In recent years, estimates unveiled by the Senior Citizens League’s in late summer have come within a percentage point of the official adjustment mark

The Social Security announcement is of particular interest to veterans because Congress annually ties the increase in veterans payouts to the Social Security Administration’s calculations.

[RELATED: COLA Crunch Time: How the Adjustment Will Take Shape in the Coming Weeks]

About 5 million veterans and 2 million military retirees receive benefits checks each month through the Department of Veterans Affairs. The COLA-increase would apply to payouts for disability compensation, clothing allowances, and dependency and indemnity benefits, as well as some other Veterans Affairs assistance programs.

For a veteran receiving $1,500 a month in disability payouts, a cost-of-living adjustment of 2.6% would mean an extra $39 each month. In 2023, that figure soared to 8.7%, or about $130 a month for that same veteran.

Social Security officials calculate the annual cost-of-living adjustment based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers. If those laborers don’t see a rise in their annual salaries, federal planners can determine that no adjustment is needed.

However, Senior Citizens League officials said the government’s “failure to return inflation to pre-pandemic levels” has put additional pressure on seniors and veterans benefits recipients, making the size of the adjustment crucial for many the financial health of many households.

Other articles by Military Times:

Sailors, Marine receive award for saving Marine’s life

If you liked the B-17s in Masters of the Air, you’ll enjoy these films

Remains of missing World War II soldier set to return home