While MOAA continues its work to secure needed changes to the military pay table for 2025, a recent economic report has set the likely 2026 military raise slightly below earlier estimates.

The 2026 increase is projected to be 3.8%, based on continuing efforts to align military compensation with the Employment Cost Index (ECI). This is a slight decrease from earlier predictions which estimated a 4.1% increase. The third quarter ECI, which was released Oct. 31, will be used to inform the 2026 pay raise set forth in next year’s National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).

The Data

Here’s a look at raises in past years:

• ECI third quarter, 2008: 2.9%, informing a 3.4% military pay raise in the FY 2010 NDAA.
• ECI Q3 2009: 1.4%, FY 2011 raise: 1.4%
• ECI Q3 2010: 1.6%, FY 2012 raise: 1.6%
• ECI Q3 2011: 1.7%, FY 2013 raise: 1.7%
• ECI Q3 2012: 1.8%, FY 2014 raise: 1.0%
• ECI Q3 2013: 1.8%, FY 2015 raise: 1.0%
• ECI Q3 2014: 2.3%, FY 2016 raise: 1.3%
• ECI Q3 2015: 2.1%, FY 2017 raise: 2.1%
• ECI Q3 2016: 2.4%, FY 2018 raise: 2.4%
• ECI Q3 2017: 2.6%, FY 2019 raise: 2.6%
• ECI Q3 2018: 3.1%, FY 2020 raise: 3.1%
• ECI Q3 2019: 3.0%, FY 2021 raise: 3.0%
• ECI Q3 2020: 2.7%, FY 2022 raise: 2.7%
• ECI Q3 2021: 4.6%, FY 2023 raise: 4.6%
• ECI Q3 2022: 5.2%, FY 2024 raise: 5.2%
• ECI Q3 2023: 4.5%, Expected FY 2025 raise: 4.5% (pending NDAA)
• ECI Q3 2024: 3.8%, Expected FY 2026 raise: ??

Is It Enough?

MOAA emphasizes the importance of maintaining pay at or above ECI benchmarks to avoid the compensation gaps seen in previous years (2014-2016, bolded above), especially in the face of recruiting challenges. While recruitment problems are easing, the financial strain, especially for junior enlisted, has not gone away.

[TAKE ACTION: Ask Your Legislators to Support a Junior Enlisted Pay Raise]

Falling below the ECI benchmark would risk pushing talented recruits toward higher-paying private sector jobs, compromising military recruitment and retention. But ongoing financial struggles faced by junior enlisted servicemembers – outlined in detail by the House Armed Services Committee’s Quality of Life Panel and a recent commentary by MOAA President and CEO Lt. Gen. Brian T. Kelly, USAF (Ret) – will require a significant investment beyond the ECI. This generational change will strengthen a critical component of the current and future force and “restore real value to basic pay,” according to the panel’s report.

Congress has the opportunity to make progress for those most in need with this year’s NDAA through securing a 4.5% across-the-board pay raise for servicemembers and providing an additional increase for junior enlisted members. You can help MOAA in these efforts by writing your lawmakers today.